As 2025 unfolded, reports of a shift in the luxury home market began to surface. Real estate statistics showed a number of key metrics on the decline, including total home sales and median sale prices.
As we enter 2026, experts predict that the factors fueling the decline will continue to have a notable impact. High interest rates will reshape behavior that was based on easy access to cheap money, and those who have the cash to buy will be looking beyond excess to secure something that is truly exclusive.
“By 2026, luxury real estate will be fully out of the cheap money era,” says luxury real estate developer Michael Nouri. “Rates may come down from the highs, but free capital is gone. For the top of the market, that shift is healthy. It removes speculation and forces discipline. Weak projects disappear, and strong assets stand out.”
Nouri is the visionary founder of The Nouri Group, which is redefining luxury real estate development in 2026 on Belle Meade Island in Miami, Florida. With a passion for creating globally inspired, wellness-focused estates, Nouri leads the design and development of homes priced from $22 million to $35 million and higher. Nouri’s approach combines entrepreneurial leadership, architectural innovation, and a commitment to creating living architecture — spaces that harmonize modern luxury with nature and wellness.
“In 2026, ultra-high-end buyers will be looking for control, security, and long-term positioning,” Nouri says. “What’s changed is how selective they’ve become. Today, capital moves toward places with a clear rule of law, political stability, predictable taxes, strong healthcare, and real security. That’s why wealth keeps concentrating into a small number of safe haven cities and waterfront regions, and quietly leaving places that add uncertainty.”
Supply Is Becoming a Key Feature in the Luxury Home Market
Supply and demand is a key factor in the global real estate industry that influences sales dynamics for luxury listings as well as those at other price points. Factors influencing the industry currently, however, have made it the primary factor.
“After years of high construction costs and tighter financing, new true-prime inventory has slowed sharply, making supply the main price driver,” Nouri reports. “In waterfront zones, historic districts, and real resort markets, it’s simply tough to build at scale anymore. When real supply is limited and real money keeps showing up, prices don’t need hype to move.”
Luxury Real Estate Buyers Are Seeking Properties and Locations That Are Climate-resilient
Climate disasters are on the rise. Both the number of events occurring annually and the value of the damage they cause have increased notably in recent years.
To make matters worse, the areas where luxury real estate options in 2026 are often concentrated can be the most vulnerable to climate disasters. Many brokers serving ultra-luxury clients report that real estate professionals serving ultra-luxury clientele are increasingly fielding questions about how natural disasters could impact their investments, as well as ongoing costs such as insurance premiums. Affluent buyers are responding to the uptick in disasters by seeking out climate-resilient, high-end real estate.
“Climate risk is also now part of valuation,” Nouri says. “Insurance, infrastructure, flooding, and heat are no longer abstract risks. Well-engineered, resilient properties will command a premium. Others will trade at a discount over time, even in famous and sought-after locations.”
Global Trends Show the Residence Is Now Just Part of the Equation
Realtors showcasing properties in the past would focus on the features of the residence itself and its grounds. Gourmet kitchens, wine cellars, cutting-edge technology, and gorgeous views were the top items highlighted because they were the features home buyers were seeking.
Moving into 2026, however, buyers are looking beyond the residence, regardless of how many features it provides. The definition of luxury is changing to include a variety of new considerations.
“The biggest shift we will see in 2026 involves an ongoing redefining of what luxury means,” Nouri says. “It’s no longer just about the home itself. At the top end, buyers are paying for privacy, health, security, and control of their environment. Homes tied to private clubs, retreats, and real wellness or medical access are starting to outperform basic luxury products. The industry is moving toward luxury as a lifestyle platform, not just a residence.”
The factors in play indicate 2026 will most likely not be a boom year for the high-end real estate sector. Rather, it will be a turning point, with new buyer preferences transforming trends and reshaping the course of development.
“Capital at the top is no longer chasing upside,” Nouri explains. “It’s choosing safety. And the properties that offer legal clarity, physical resilience, and real lifestyle value will lead the next phase of the luxury market.”
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