Driverless trucks are not as farfetched as you might think. The technology is growing rapidly, and though it’s not a major commercial project yet, the tech could go mainstream fairly soon. When that happens, will it be the end of truck drivers as we know them?
Predictions indicate that truck driving will take a very different role in the future. However, experts predict that it will be decades before the autonomous trucking industry goes mainstream, and though it will change truck drivers’ roles, it won’t eliminate them altogether.
Driverless Trucks Could Cut Truck Driving Jobs
Recently, four European transport groups joined together to study the impact of autonomous vehicle technology on truck driving jobs. According to their report, between 2 and 4.4 million truck driving jobs in the United States will be eliminated by 2030. That’s about 50 to 70 percent of all truck driving jobs in the United States.
The investment in self-driving rigs is highly appealing to trucking and transportation companies. Labor costs are currently the highest expense for the industry, accounting for up to 45 percent of their bottom line. Even with the high cost of adoption, autonomous vehicles are expected to offer huge cost savings for truck drivers.
“Manufacturers are investing heavily into truck-automation technology, while many governments are actively reviewing their regulations to understand what changes would be required to allow self-driving vehicles on public roads,” noted José Viegas, the ITF’s Secretary-General, in a statement.
The Greater Benefits of Autonomous Trucking
There are fewer emissions with a computer-run vehicle. Autonomous vehicles will speed up less quickly, and operate in a pre-calculated way to burn less fuel. Since about 29 percent of U.S. energy consumption goes towards commercial transportation, this decrease could be significant.
It’s also much safer. Studies show that autonomous vehicles, in general, reduce accidents by up to 90 percent. The ability to reduce accidents caused by commercial trucks would be huge, since the injuries and fatalities associated with these accidents are hefty.
“Truck driver error is a leading contributing factor to crashes involving tractor trailers and semis,” explains Mike Sawaya, a lawyer in Denver. “Truckers spend many hours behind the wheel and often drive too fast for roadway conditions.”
According to Sawaya, other types of human error for truckers include being unfamiliar with the road, using over-the-counter drugs, fatigue, work pressure, inattention, and more. Some other top causes of truck accidents include brake issues, roadway factors, inadequate surveillance, tire problems, jackknifing, and more.
Self-driving trucks would limit the number of accidents on the road. There would be little room for human error, and the vehicles would be equipped with sensors and schematics that would help them prevent problems on a long drive.
With these benefits in mind, it’s clear how attractive self-driving trucks would be for everyone. It’s no wonder that so many transportation companies want in on it.
Adoption Will Be Slow
Many falsely assume that adoption of this tech will be rapid and widespread. However, changes like this don’t happen overnight. Manufacturers predict that the first autonomous commercial truck will hit the market by 2030, but it might be several more decades before organizations adopt them fully.
First, there’s the issue of fear. Even though numbers show that autonomous vehicles can reduce your bottom line and limit accidents, many people will be skeptical. Vehicle hackers present danger, and people generally distrust things they don’t understand. Many commercial transport operations won’t give up on their drivers easily. Some may always refuse the use of self-driving vehicles altogether, keeping a good portion of trucking jobs open.
There’s also the issue of capital. Self-driving vehicles will likely be very expensive, and only the largest corporations will have the money to jump in. After a few years—maybe decades—as prices decrease and become more competitive, more will invest.
Many predictions estimate that it might be 2050 before we see a fully autonomous truck-driving company hit the market.
Truck Driving Jobs Will Evolve
Truck driving jobs will never fully disappear, but for companies that choose to adopt self-driving vehicles, those jobs will evolve into something better. Autonomous vehicles, especially in the commercial sector, need someone to monitor them constantly. Monitors will sit in an office and run through checklists to ensure smooth operation and to minimize accidents.
Those in this position may need a higher form of education, so truck drivers worried about their jobs now can take proactive steps to be prepared for the future.
