To say that that COVID-19 has upended life as we know it, at this point, would be an understatement. With much of the world’s schools, businesses, airports, and borders closed, our day-to-day routines have become increasingly unrecognizable in comparison to our pre-pandemic lives. With so much instability on the horizon, change and uncertainty appear the new normal.
If the immediate health crisis presented by the pandemic is not enough to create tension and cause anxiety, the economic damages that will reverberate in its wake certainly are. Hospitals are overwhelmed, many are out of work, and businesses are struggling to survive. It is impossible to know exactly what this pandemic’s long-term economic damages and death tolls are, or exactly how bad they will be.
While these fears about COVID are valid, they are not the apex of the problems this pandemic poses. According to Justin Nolan, Associate Professor in the Department of Anthropology at the University of Arkansas, the social implications that will ripple through our societies will continue to impact us long after the pandemic’s initial threats have been resolved.
Profound Shifts on the Horizon
We have no way of knowing exactly how long lockdown laws or other preventative measures will last. Until there is a vaccine or clinically proven treatment—something which could take months or even years—our lives are suspended in an indefinite state of discomfort and uncertainty.
As eagerness grows to find solutions and return to “normal,” Justin Nolan asserts we should remain realistic about the post-COVID world. Shops will reopen, schools will resume, and travel bans will eventually lift. However, it is virtually impossible that our lives will be restored exactly to their pre-pandemic state, even after COVID is resolved.
Like the assassination of John F Kennedy, the bombing of Pearl Harbor, or the attacks of 9/11, the far-reaching consequences of this earth-shattering event will extend far beyond our reasonable imagination, impacting our lives in ways we could never anticipate. Whether a vaccine is found next month or next year, this pandemic is bound to leave behind lasting, irreversible consequences.
In the midst of so much uncertainty, one thing seems clear: profound shifts are on the horizon. The only question seems to be their exact implications. In an effort to lessen their consequences, today’s leading economists, politicians, and academics are beginning to think critically about what those shifts may entail.
Pandemic Measures Create Social Pressure
In his Foreign Affairs article, expert economist Brank Milanovic highlights our world’s lesser-known weakness regarding the pandemic’s long-term repercussions. While many are anticipating soaring death tolls and devastating blows to the global economy, few have taken note of this pandemic’s most prominent threat.
While our individual survival relies on our health and economic wellbeing, our societal wellbeing relies on our collective interpersonal bonds. In endangering these bonds, the current pandemic threatens not just the individual, but the strength and foundation of human society as a whole. These bonds are the fabric of life as we know it—the cultural habits, laws, values, and morals that have become the backbone of human existence. In some senses, we rely on them even more than our physical health or economic standing.
Unfortunately, this pandemic will put those ties under pressure in a way never before imagined. Lockdown laws have dictated that we retreat into our homes, stop going to work, and stop sharing communal spaces. As the pandemic progresses, it will become increasingly difficult to connect.
By nature, many pandemic mitigation measures disrupt our social lives. Historically, quarantines have been known to spark tension and animosity between government bodies and their citizens. The pushback currently happening against government-mandated shut-down practices is nothing new—these happened in 1918 with the onset of the global flu pandemic as well.
As we slip further into fear-induced aversion, we may begin to see one another as enemies rather than allies. Those who are left struggling may easily turn against those who are better off. The looting and mass chaos that followed Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, could become commonplace on a nation-wide scale.
It is these consequences precisely that has some academics concerned that we will lose sight of our essential connections to one another, ultimately failing to nurture the empathy and interconnectedness that makes modern society a reality.
Predicting the Future Based on the Past
It is impossible to say exactly how all this will play out. We have no way to glimpse the future. When it comes to making predictions, Justin Nolan argues we can only look to history as a reference for what may take place as this pandemic progresses.
As with the 1918 Spanish Influenza and other past pandemics, we should expect COVID to initially fray the social fabric that binds us together. Tensions will raise, social ties will be broken, and communities may struggle as individualistic motives take the reins. Exactly how much damage will be done is yet to be determined. Hopefully, even the most tragic social and economic damages will not be beyond repair.
Even so, history has the habit of repeating itself. Justin Nolan is hopeful that our society, like many of the pandemic-stricken societies before it, will bounce back and heal in the years following the virus’s resolve. This was certainly the case even after the Spanish Flu pandemic swept across the nation, which touched even the lives of rural communities in the sparsely populated Western states.
Moving forward, it is unlikely that our lives will ever truly return to their original states. As we progress through this uncharted territory; however, the best measure may be to work diligently to reinforce the very thing that holds our society together: our connections with one another.
